Maria Angelica Baldres
Selected Work/Case Study/Market & Location Analysis
Case Study · Spain Long-Term Rental Market & Location Analysis

A Russafa flat as a long-term rental: the rent holds up, the yield needs work.

A market and location screen for a 160 m² flat with four or more bedrooms at Calle Filipinas 13, in València’s Russafa barrio, listed at €589,000 and in need of reform. Long-term rental comparables support about €2,100 to €2,150 a month. At the asking price, that is a 4.3% gross yield before purchase costs and renovation, against about 5.6% for the city as a whole.

See the Rent Evidence Read the Implication
Public dataResearch cut-off: 26 September 2026. Built from public listings, official statistics and municipal records. Listings and housing rules in Spain change quickly and should be rechecked before any decision.
Screen result · €589,000 ask Proceed to underwriting, with conditions
Calle Filipinas 13, Russafa
València · Piso · 160 m² · Built 1973 · To reform
Supported rent
€2,100–2,150
Per month · analyst range
Comp median
€2,133
Effective rent · 6 long-term comps
Comp €/m²
€16.45
vs €13.33 for the subject
Subject gross yield
4.3%
Rent midpoint / asking price
City gross yield
5.6%
Asking rent / asking price
Risks rated
0 · 5 · 3 · 1
High · Moderate · Low · N/D
Values from the completed workbook (01_SUMMARY). Yields are gross, before taxes, purchase costs, renovation and operating costs.
11 listings reviewed6 long-term comps in the statistics; 3 temporary and 2 luxury listings kept out
14 market indicatorsPopulation, income, jobs, rents, prices, tourist and vacant homes
7 pipeline projects374 new homes within about 2 km, by status and tenure
38 source records · 13 of 13 checksMaterial findings traced to dated evidence
02 · The Question

Can this flat work as a long-term rental, and at what rent?

Investment question

Does the market and the micro-location support buying this flat to let long term, and which rent, vacancy, rent-growth, supply and regulatory assumptions does the evidence support?

The subject is a large, older flat in one of València’s most central and in-demand barrios. That combination raises the questions an investor needs answered before paying for full due diligence: what similar homes actually rent for on long contracts, whether demand is deep enough at that rent level, what new housing is coming, what the location offers tenants, and which rules limit what an owner can do.

This is a market and location screen. It sets the evidence-based inputs for a later acquisition model; it does not model purchase taxes, financing, renovation cost or returns.

Location
L'Eixample / Russafa, València
Property
Piso · 4+ bedrooms · 160 m²
Building
1973 · lift · accessible entrance
Condition
Flat needs renovation
Asking price
€589,000 · €3,681/m²
Rent regulation
Not a declared zona tensionada
Researched

A fact taken from a listing, official statistic or municipal record, with a source and date.

Calculated

An output the workbook computes from researched inputs, such as a median, €/m² or yield.

Analyst view

A judgment or underwriting input chosen after reviewing the evidence.

Conclusion

What the evidence implies for an investor, and what still needs testing.

03 · Why València

Lower entry price, higher starting yield.

Before choosing a property, three cities were screened on the same public indicators. València combined the lowest entry price with the highest indicative gross yield, steady rent growth and no rent-control designation. Madrid and Barcelona have higher incomes, but their prices leave less rent per euro invested, and Barcelona is a declared zona tensionada.

Indicative gross yield by city
Asking rent × 12 ÷ asking sale price, municipality level, August 2026 Calculated
IndicatorMadridValènciaBarcelona
Asking rent, €/m²/month23.316.320.2
Annual asking-rent change+5.1%+3.5%+0.7%
Asking sale price, €/m²6,4713,4695,440
Avg net household income€49,916€40,058€47,361
Tourist dwellings share0.71%1.30%1.02%
Conventional crime, 2025 vs 2024−2.4%−3.0%−3.1%
Rent regulationNot tensionedNot tensionedDeclaredzona tensionada

Rents and prices: Idealista August 2026 reports, accessed 24 September 2026. Income: INE ADRH. Tourist share: INE. Researched

04 · Rent Evidence

Six long-term comps put rent near €2,130 a month.

Eleven listings in Russafa and L'Eixample with four or more bedrooms were reviewed. Only long-term, whole-home lets feed the statistics. Three listings aimed at students or short stays and two luxury renovations were recorded but kept out, because they describe a different product or tenant.

Effective monthly rent vs size
Russafa / L'Eixample, four or more bedrooms, listings accessed 25 September 2026
Chart data
Listingm²Effective €/moGroup

Monthly rent is in line; €/m² is not.

The comps. The six long-term comps show effective rents of €1,690 to €2,855 a month, with a median of €2,133. Calculated Two listings include a parking space, so €135 a month, the median nearby garage rent, was taken off to compare like with like. None offered a discount or free month.

The size gap. The subject is 160 m², about 29% larger than the median comp (124.5 m²). Tested at the comp median rent, it lets at €13.33/m², below the comps’ €16.45/m². At the comps’ rate per m², its size would imply about €2,632 a month. Calculated

Why the range stays at €2,100 to €2,150. Most comps are in good or recently renovated condition, while the subject needs reform. Larger flats also tend to let at a lower rate per m². The supportable rent is therefore anchored to what comparable homes collect per month, not to the size-adjusted figure. Analyst view The €/m² gap shows what a renovation would need to close before a higher rent could be argued.

Median effective rent
€2,133
6 long-term comps · range €1,690–€2,855
Median asking rent
€2,200
Before removing included parking
Median effective €/m²
€16.45
Subject €13.33 at the tested rent
Temporary vs all long-term listings
−3.5%
Median asking €/m²; no premium in this comp set
Why the rental-type split matters. Three of the eleven listings target students or fixed-date stays. In this comp set they were not priced above long-term lets per m², but they offer a different lease, tenant and turnover pattern. Keeping them out means the rent assumption reflects the product being bought: a long-term, whole-home let under Spain’s tenancy law.
All eleven listings
ID · streetClassificationm²AskingParking adj.Effective€/m²Condition · CEENote
05 · Demand & Pricing

Demand is growing, but this rent needs a high-income tenant.

Population, jobs and income are all rising, and a larger share of homes is rented than a decade ago. The constraint is affordability: the supported rent absorbs about 64% of an average València household’s net income, so the realistic tenant pool is narrower than the city-wide numbers suggest.

Population
+5.1%
800,215 → 840,792, 2020–2025 (Padrón) Researched
Social Security affiliates
+4.3%
Year on year, August 2026 · 485,353 workers
Avg net household income
€40,058
+16.6% from €34,367, 2020–2023 (ADRH)
Rented share of main homes
17.3%
Up 2.8 points from 14.5%, 2011–2021 Census
Unemployment (EPA)
10.7%
Province, Q2 2026 · down 0.3 points
Registered unemployment
−0.3%
43,409 → 43,273, August YoY (SEPE)
Aged 20 to 39
25.6%
of residents in 2025, up from 23.7% in 2020
Households
−1.8%
328,980 → 323,171, 2011–2021 Census

The household count comes from the 2011 and 2021 censuses, which INE notes use similar but not identical concepts; population and jobs data are more recent. Periods differ by indicator and are shown on each tile.

Three rent levels, three different things.

Contract rent. SERPAVI, the Housing Ministry’s index built from tax-declared contracts, puts València’s median at €7.5/m² in 2023, up from €5.9 in 2019 (6.2% a year). Researched It covers every existing contract, including old ones, and runs about three years behind.

Asking rent. Portal asking rents averaged €16.3/m² in August 2026, up from €15.8 a year earlier. That is more than double the 2023 contract median. Calculated The two measure different things at different dates, so the gap is a warning against underwriting from portal averages, not a like-for-like comparison.

Sale prices. Asking prices rose 6.1% to €3,469/m². The subject is listed at €3,681/m², about 6% above the city average for a flat that still needs renovation. Calculated That, more than the rent, explains why its yield sits below the city’s.

Rent per m² per month
Different sources and dates; read as context, not a direct comparison
Chart data
Measure€/m²/moPeriod
SERPAVI contract median, València7.502023
Subject at tested rent (€2,133 / 160 m²)13.33Sep 2026
Portal asking average, València16.30Aug 2026
Long-term comp median effective16.45Sep 2026
Affordability. At the €2,125 midpoint, annual rent is €25,500, or 64% of the average net household income of €40,058. Calculated This suggests a narrower tenant pool and makes tenant screening more important.
06 · New Supply

374 new homes nearby, few aimed at this tenant.

Seven projects were identified within about 0.45 to 2.0 km. Most are for sale, and most are studios to three-bedroom homes. The one direct rental competitor is 91 public affordable-rental homes at 1.6 km, mostly two-bedroom, due in 2028.

Pipeline projects by distance from the subject
Homes per project · status and tenure as of 25–26 September 2026
Chart data
ProjectkmHomesStatusTenure

Direct competition is limited for a large flat.

By status. 214 homes are under construction and 160 are still in planning, with no fixed start for several. Calculated Planned projects are kept separate because delivery is uncertain.

By tenure. 283 homes are for sale. Some may be bought by investors and let, especially the 75 studios at Central Park Garden and the smaller units at Alba Parc and Malilla Suites, but that competes mainly with small flats. The 91 Plan Vive homes are rental from day one and will compete on price, mostly for two-bedroom tenants. Researched

Wider trend. New-home approvals across the province reached 9,337 in 2025, 40% above 2024 and the highest of the five years reviewed. More supply is coming to the region over the next few years.

Rated Moderate: real rental competition exists nearby, but it is not aimed at a four-bedroom, 160 m² home. Analyst view

New dwellings approved, València province
Visados de dirección de obra nueva, Ministry of Transport statistics, 2021–2025
07 · Location

Daily life on foot, the city centre in 18 minutes.

Access was measured with Google Maps from the building’s address to eight destinations. Everything a household uses daily is within a 14-minute walk, the city centre is 18 minutes on foot, and the high-speed rail station is 14 minutes away.

Travel time from Calle Filipinas 13
Minutes, weekday reference, measured 25 September 2026 Researched

A location tenants pay for, with one caveat.

Strength. A supermarket 5 minutes away, Parc Central 6, the Russafa health centre 10, Metrovalencia Line 10 13, Joaquín Sorolla high-speed station 14 and Plaça de l’Ajuntament 18, all on foot. The Universitat de València campus is 21 minutes by public transport and the airport 36.

Demand driver. The city centre is a major concentration of employment, government and services, and it is walkable from the subject. The economy is service-led (81.3% of jobs in Q2 2025) but spread across many activities, with no dominant employer or strong seasonality. Researched

Constraint. Russafa is also a nightlife district. Calle Filipinas odd numbers 1 to 39 sit in the official respect zone of the Russafa acoustically saturated area (ZAS). The subject is number 13. That is a real consideration for families and noise-sensitive tenants, the likely renters of a four-bedroom flat. Analyst view

08 · Risk & Regulation

No high risks, five that need managing.

Nine risks were reviewed against official maps, municipal records and judicial data. Ratings are analyst judgments based on the evidence, not a numerical score. None is rated High; five are Moderate and belong in the underwriting as costs, allowances or diligence items.

RiskRatingEvidence and implication
New supplyPipeline, 0.45–2.0 km
Moderate
374 homes identified; 214 under construction, including 91 public affordable-rental homes at 1.6 km.Could slow letting and rent growth for similar units; partly offset because most supply is for sale and smaller.
Noise and nightlifeRussafa ZAS respect zone
Moderate
The subject address is inside the official ZAS respect zone; city acoustic studies document nightlife, terrace and road and rail noise.May affect tenant comfort and appeal. The ZAS rules limit further growth of nightlife noise. Orientation, glazing and night-time interior noise still need to be checked on site.
Building condition and energyIEE / CEE
Moderate
Built 1973, with a lift and a recently renovated accessible entrance. The flat needs renovation. Listing certificate: 129 kWh/m²/year, 27 kg CO₂/m²/year. Over 50 years old, so subject to the regional building inspection (IEEV.CV).Renovation capex up front and possible community works later. The inspection result and community minutes were not verified.
Non-payment and recoveryComunitat Valenciana
Moderate
Rental-related evictions in the region fell 14.3% in 2025; 2,517 were recorded in 2024 (CGPJ).A market-level indicator, not this tenant’s risk. Screening and rent-default insurance reduce exposure; a 3% allowance is carried into underwriting.
Tourist and temporary rulesPGOU, 2026
Moderate
Tourist homes were 1.30% of the city’s dwellings in May 2026. New planning rules, approved 31 March 2026, cap tourist accommodation at 2% of housing by barrio and district.Reduces the flexibility to use this flat for short-term letting, but also protects long-term supply from tourist conversions.
Rent regulationLey 12/2023
Low
València is not a declared zona tensionada. A municipal proposal to seek the designation was rejected on 1 December 2025, by 16 votes to 15.No tensioned-area rent cap applied at the cut-off; the narrow vote shows the question could return.
Flood exposureMITECO SNCZI
Low
The exact subject location is outside the mapped T10, T100 and T500 flood zones and the zona de flujo preferente.Low mapped fluvial exposure; a map check, not an engineering study.
Economic concentrationSeasonality, employers
Low
Services are 81.3% of employment but spread across retail, professional services, industry, logistics and education.A diversified base supports stable long-term demand.
OtherScreening
Not determined
No additional material risk identified during this screen.
Rent level

No tensioned-area cap applied

València was not a declared zona tensionada at the research cut-off, so the screen does not apply a tensioned-area rent cap. A future designation could change rent-setting rules and should be rechecked before acquisition or re-letting.

Annual updates

Increases follow the IRAV

For contracts signed since 26 May 2023, yearly increases are guided by INE’s IRAV index: 2.47% for August 2026. Market growth only reaches the rent when the flat is re-let.

Use

Long-term is the underwriting base case

The 2026 planning rules on tourist accommodation constrain conversion to short-term use, and any such use would require a separate eligibility review. The investment case is therefore built on long-term letting.

09 · Underwriting Inputs

What the evidence hands to the acquisition model.

These are research-supported assumptions, not forecasts. Each one points to the evidence behind it, so the next model can test or change it with the reasoning visible.

InputGuidanceWhy
Supportable monthly rent4+ bed, long-term let
€2,100–2,150
Centred on the €2,133 comp median. Below the €2,632 size-adjusted figure because the flat needs reform and most comps are in better condition.
Void allowance% of annual rent
3.0%
Long LAU contracts (five years, with tacit extensions) mean few turnovers; the allowance covers the empty period between tenants.
Non-payment allowanceor rent-default insurance cost
3.0%
Regional eviction data and a narrower, higher-income tenant pool at 64% rent-to-income. Replace with real insurance quotes.
In-contract rent updateper year
2.5%
Close to the latest IRAV of 2.47% (August 2026), which guides updates on post-May 2023 contracts.
Market rent growth at re-lettingper year
3.0%
Below SERPAVI’s 6.2% a year (2019–2023) and near recent asking-rent growth, with new rental supply arriving in 2028.
Rent basisasking vs achieved
Comps, not portals
Portal asking averages are more than double the 2023 contract median, so the rent is taken from long-term comps of the same size and type.
Regulatory view
No tensioned-area cap at cut-off
Not a declared zona tensionada at 26 September 2026; updates follow the IRAV. Recheck before committing.
10 · Implication

Worth underwriting; the asking price needs further testing.

Market & location conclusion Conclusion

The location and rent evidence support taking this flat to full underwriting. The price is where the case is weakest.

Long-term demand for central València is solid and the location is strong. A rent of about €2,100 to €2,150 is well supported by comparable homes. At €589,000, that rent yields about 4.3% gross before purchase costs, renovation and operating costs, against about 5.6% for the city. The screen does not show that the flat should be bought; it shows what the purchase model must prove.

01

The rent is supported

Six long-term comps centre on €2,133 a month, with no discounts and a clear rule for what was left out. The range is anchored to monthly rent, not stretched by size.

€2,100–€2,150 per month
02

The price carries the risk

The flat is listed about 6% above the city’s average asking price per m² while needing renovation. At the supported rent, matching the city’s 5.6% gross yield would imply a price near €452,000. That is a yield reference, not a valuation.

4.3% vs 5.6% gross yield
03

The risks are manageable, not absent

No risk is rated High. New rental supply, ZAS noise, building age, non-payment and tourist-use rules are real, and each has a cost, an allowance or a diligence step attached.

0 High · 5 Moderate · 3 Low · 1 N/D
PriceAcquisition basis

Model the purchase at the asking price and at lower offers, with purchase taxes and costs, to see where the investment clears the investor’s return target. The €452,000 yield reference is a starting point for that test, not a target price.

CapexRenovation scope

Price the renovation and its timing, and test whether a renovated flat could close part of the €16.45 vs €13.33/m² gap. Any rent above €2,150 should come from renovated comps, not from the size-adjusted figure alone.

DiligenceBuilding and noise

Obtain the IEE inspection result, recent community minutes and any planned works (derramas). Visit at night to check orientation, glazing and interior noise in the ZAS respect zone.

TenantAffordability and security

At about 64% of average household income, the rent suits higher-income or multi-earner households. Confirm demand with local agents and replace the 3% non-payment allowance with real insurance quotes.

RulesMonitor before committing

Recheck the zona tensionada status and the latest IRAV at the time of any offer. València’s December 2025 vote against seeking the designation was 16 to 15.

11 · The Workbook

One workbook, every figure traceable.

A reusable six-sheet template for Spanish long-term rental screens, plus an area-screening tab. Inputs are separated from formulas, only long-term whole-home lets feed the rent statistics, and thirteen automatic checks confirm the research is complete before conclusions are written.

LTR València Russafa · Market & Location AnalysisGoogle Sheets · 6 analysis sheets + area screening · cut-off 26 September 2026
Open in Google Sheets ↗

Key cells from 01_SUMMARY. Blue values are research inputs or analyst guidance; black values are calculated by the workbook.

Subject
B8District / barrioL'Eixample / Russafa
B11Year built1973
B12ConditionTo reform
B13Asking price€589,000
C25Area160 m²
B14Zona tensionadaNo
Rent Position · 4+ bed
B25Subject rent tested€2,133
D25Subject €/m²€13.33
F25Comp median effective€2,133
I25Comp median €/m²€16.45
J25Long-term comps6
K25Implied at comp €/m²€2,632
Market Snapshot
B30Population, 2020–25+5.1%
B33Avg household income€40,058
B34Affiliates, YoY+4.3%
B37SERPAVI 2023, €/m²€7.50
B38Asking rent, €/m²€16.30
B40Market gross yield5.6%
Supply & Subject Ratios
B42Under construction214
B43Licensed / planning160
B44For rent (public)91
B45Subject gross yield4.3%
B46Rent-to-income63.7%
B56Moderate risks5
Guidance
B61Rent low€2,100
B62Rent high€2,150
B66Void allowance3.0%
B67Non-payment3.0%
B68In-contract update2.5%
B69Re-let growth3.0%
Location
C50City centre, walk18 min
C51Metrovalencia, walk13 min
C52Supermarket, walk5 min
C53Health centre, walk10 min
B54Flood (SNCZI)Low
B55High risks0
Input or analyst guidanceCalculatedKey output
13 of 13 checks OK 38 documented source records 0 formula errors Only long-term whole-home lets feed the rent statistics.
12 · Method & Sources

From scattered public data to one investment view.

Spanish housing data sits across ministries, the statistics office, the city council, regional bodies and property portals, at different geographies and dates. The work was to collect it, label it consistently, and keep facts, calculations and judgments visibly apart.

01

Screen

Compare cities on rent, price, yield, income and regulation before choosing where to look.

02

Collect

Record listings, official statistics, pipeline projects, travel times and risk evidence, each with a date and URL.

03

Classify & calculate

Separate long-term lets from temporary ones, remove bundled parking, and compute medians, €/m², growth and yields.

04

Interpret

Rate risks, set underwriting inputs, and write findings only after every check passes.

Rents & prices
  • Idealista listings11 rental listings, 25 Sep 2026
  • Idealista price reportsAsking rent and sale €/m²
  • MIVAU SERPAVIContract rent, 2019 and 2023
Demand
  • INE Padrón & CensusPopulation, households, tenure, vacancy
  • INE ADRHHousehold income
  • Seguridad Social · SEPE · EPAJobs and unemployment
Supply
  • Developer & portal recordsSix private projects
  • Ajuntament de ValènciaPlan Vive Malilla
  • Ministry statisticsProvincial visados 2021–2025
Location
  • Google MapsEight measured routes
  • Ajuntament de ValènciaPadrón by age; ZAS declaration
  • València ActivaEmployment structure
Risk & rules
  • MITECO SNCZIFlood zones at the address
  • BOE · city recordsZona tensionada status
  • PGOU 2026 · INE IRAV · CGPJTourist rules, updates, evictions
38source records with access date, data period and usage; external records include the original URL
13 of 13completion checks pass: subject, comps, market, pipeline, location, risks, sources, guidance, errors
4 labelsresearched, calculated, analyst view and conclusion kept apart throughout
About this analysis. An independent market and location screen of a publicly listed property, prepared from public information available through 26 September 2026. It was not commissioned by a client and does not describe a transaction. Listings, prices and housing rules in Spain change quickly. Yields shown are gross and exclude purchase taxes, renovation, financing and operating costs, and nothing here is legal, tax or investment advice.